Io amo questo paese!!!

USA GDP Grows By 3.5%
Joshua Zumbrun, 10.29.09, 09:47 AM EDT
(original source: http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/29/gdp-economy-growth-business-washington-gdp.html)

WASHINGTON -- After a long decline, the economy is officially growing again. According to initial estimates, the economy grew by 3.5% in the third quarter of 2009.

Though widely expected to be positive, the figure slightly beat expectations. Economists had projected 3.2% growth. USA GDP has not been positive since the second quarter of 2008. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research, the recession began in December 2007. But with an expanding economy, the recession is all but officially over, and even job growth should soon return!

Gli USA è il vero paese della self-made-company

Come una società nata appena dieci anni fa da due 27enni riesce a far muovere gli immensi mercati del capitalismo d'oltre oceano... inconcepibile in Italia!

[ From http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-edge-up-after-google-results-2009-10-16 ]
U.S. stock futures edged higher as Google on Thusrday October 15th (after closing) helped maintain the optimism over earnings season. On Friday October 16th S&P 500 futures rose 2.6 points to 1,092.40 and futures on the Dowadded 18 points. Despite a decline in the financial sector after Goldman Sachs and Citigroup results, U.S. stocks closed broadly higher thanks to Google earnings good news reported a 27% profit rise.

Compensi Goldman Sachs: vergogna!

Goldman Sachs Nine-Month Compensation Totals $527,192 a Person

By Christine Harper

Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. set aside $16.7 billion for compensation and benefits in the first nine months of 2009, up 46 percent from a year earlier and enough to pay each worker $527,192 for the period.

Revenue jumped 49 percent to $35.6 billion this year through September and the New York-based firm set aside 47 percent to cover its largest expense, compensation and benefits, Goldman Sachs said today as it released third-quarter earnings results. The amount set aside this year is just shy of the all- time high $16.9 billion allocated in the first three quarters of 2007.

Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein, who set a Wall Street pay record in 2007, slashed compensation last year and went without a bonus after the firm reported its first quarterly loss and accepted financial support from the government. As earnings rebounded and the firm repaid $10 billion plus dividends to the government this year, the company resumed allocating billions of dollars for year-end bonuses.

Intel Shares Jump After Forecast Tops Estimates

Intel sales forecast beats estimates by as much as $1 billion, setting the stage for a broader recovery in technology earnings. Intel, the world’s biggest chipmaker, predicted fourth- quarter revenue of as much as $10.5 billion, topping the $9.5 billion average estimate.
The company’s gross margin may reach the highest level this decade.
Intel climbed as much as $1.41 to $21.90 in extended trading yesterday.

Natural Gas UP or DOWN?

These weeks Natural Gas futures contracts are crazier than Oil... Look at this last 12 months chart !

Today (13 oct 2009) the NG futures contracts quote 4,564$ (-6.55%) at 12:22PM NYC (6:23PM Rome)

Earnings week

We have earnings this week coming from 6 DOW + 1 EX-DOW components:

• Johnson & Johnson (Tuesday before the bell)
  
• Intel Corporation (Tuesday after the close)
• JPMorgan Chase & Co. (Wednesday before the bell)
  
• International Business Machines (Thursday)
  
• Citigroup Inc. (Thursday) (it's no longer a DOW component, but that is still a recent change!)
• Bank of America Corporation (Friday before the bell)
  
• General Electric Co. (Friday)
  

Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) is set to report earnings Tuesday morning. Consensus estimates are $1.13 EPS and $15.18 billion in revenues, while Q4 consensus is $0.98 EPS on $15.51 billion in revenues. Since the end of June this is up almost 9% and since the March 9 close this is up 34%.

Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC) reports Tuesday after the close and is the first of the tech giants to report. Estimates are $0.27 EPS and $9.02 billion in revenues; next quarter estimates are $0.34 EPS on $9.5 billion in revenues. Since the end of June this is up 22.5% and since the March 7 close this is up 63%.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) reports earnings on Wednesday morning and is effectively the first of the banking giants on deck. Estimates are $0.49 EPS and $24.8 billion. Since the end of June this is up almost 34% and since the March 9 close this is up 187%.

International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) is also on deck Thursday and is expected to post $2.38 EPS and $23.37 billion in revenues. Estimates for next quarter are $3.38 EPS and $26.68 billion in revenues. The backlog is paramount and was listed as $132 billion at actual rates on June 30 compared to $126 billion on March 31. Since the end of June this is up 20% and since the March 9 close this is up 51%.

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) is up for earnings on Thursday. It is no longer a DJIA component, but many still consider it a key stock as it is routinely the most active bank stock by far. Estimates are -$0.21 EPS as of today. Since the end of June this is up 55% and since the March 9 close this is up over 300%.

Bank of America Corporation (NYSE: BAC) is reporting on Friday morning. The Ken Lewis departure makes getting too bold a hard task here, but shares have held their own. Estimates are currently -$0.06 EPS on about $27.5 billion in revenues. Since the end of June this is up 32% and since the March 9 close this is up over 300%.

General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) will be the first company that gives us a broad read across many industries next Friday. We have consensus estimates at $0.20 EPS on about $40 billion in revenues. GE no longer likes to offer detailed guidance, but estimates for Q4 are $0.24 EPS and $42.58 billion in revenues. GE Capital is the likely focus here as investors are going to be looking for continued profit discussions. Since the end of June this is up 39% and since the March 9 close this is up 122%.

Tech Titans Holding $260 Billion In Cash

Original source: http://247wallst.com/2009/09/25/tech-titans-holding-260-billion-cash-dell-per-orcl-java-msft-aapl-ibm-goog-csco-intc-hpq-qcom-emc-yhoo

[...] We wanted to look through the technology sector and after we looked through the top 100 markets caps [...]. Out if the $335 billion from those in the top twenty, we broke out Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM), Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL), Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO), Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC), Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL). [...] Now, going further down the list of the top 100 companies with $5 billion or more in cash from tech companies alone adds in Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ), QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM), EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC), and Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO). [...]

Hewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) had almost $25 billion in cash and long-term investments. Now that it has migrated away from just selling PCs and printers, we think that there will be a rather long lull before H-P tries to match its big buyout of EDS even if Dell is tip-toeing into IT-services and consulting with Perot. But in the end, what we think may not matter. Nearly $25 billion in cash when you know you will be profitable ahead leaves a lot of room to go out make purchases.

QUALCOMM Inc. (NASDAQ: QCOM) was the 29th largest company as of Wednesday with a $74.12 billion market cap. If you tally up its cash, short-term and long-term investments, it is sitting on almost $15 billion in cash and equivalents as of last quarter. After all the lawsuits that the Jacobs team are settled, it might consider a way to deploy capital to get around future patent cases. If only it was possible, although anything is possible.

EMC Corporation (NYSE: EMC) is the 64th largest in the country with a $34.7 billion market cap, and it is sitting on very close to $10 billion in cash and short-term and long-term investments. The issue is that it just made the $2.1 billion deal for Data Domain, Inc. (NASDAQ: DDUP), but it also has over 50% of the float of VMware (NYSE: VMW) and that company is worth $17 billion. EMC is likely in such a storage leadership position that it has to make strategic deals. In that notion, EMC could be making $1 to $3 billion buyouts every six to twelve months.

Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) was the 100th largest company mid-week with a $23.6 billion market cap. The distant #2 search player is hard to call a definite buyer now because of new management and because of a new direction and restructuring. But the company is still generating cash every quarter even if Google has dwarfed it, and the deal with Microsoft is going to add cash. Throw in its other strategic spin-outs and asset sales, and suddenly Yahoo! may have a real desire to go for broke. At the end of Q2 it held about $7.5 billion in cash and short-term and long-term investments. As Yahoo! wants to get further into profitable content and user-centric interfaces, you could probably pick a hundred names for it to buy. Carol Bartz is no meager CEO and she could probably even get into the auto business if she could make the case that it would take back ten points in the company’s share of search.

Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) is still #2 with a $230 billion market cap mid-week has more than $36 billion in cash and equivalents. There is always the concern that antitrust issues will arise in any Microsoft deal, but that has not been the case in the search pact with Yahoo! so far. There are very few add-on plays here for its O/S and Office software. Other software, media, search, advertising-related, audio and communications plays would be the most logical targets assuming all the cash doesn’t go for buybacks or another big dividend.

International Business Machines (NYSE: IBM) was #9 on the top companies list and had a market cap of $159 billion and $12.5 billion in cash after spending $2.4 billion in the last quarter alone for dividends and buybacks. IBM would likely look at another people-intensive or service-intensive deal, although there are random hardware and storage and systems possibilities still out there.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is now #8 on the America’s largest and it has long been a puzzle about what it would do with all that cash. Its market cap was $165 billion mid-week, and its hoard of cash and equivalents is more than $31 billion. Buying back its own stock would be expensive and maybe just silly and integrating an outside company into Apple might be far from easy. With Apple’s 909.16 million shares, it could pay out close to a $34.00 per share dividend if it wanted to take the cash balance down to Zero and start all over again.

Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) now has a market cap of close to $158 billion now that its stock went back over $500… and a cash balance of roughly $19.3 billion. Google may have the “Do no evil” mantra, but Google will now get into trouble for any deal it makes that is beyond an expansion. If Google chose the cash dividend route, it could pay close to $60.00 per share and just start over on its cash growth game. Also keep in mind one thing: in acquisitions, Google has tried to stay as content-neutral as it can so that it can still claim fair and open search and preference of content on the web.

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) was worth close to $135 billion in market cap mid-week and despite making deals all along the way and buying back billions worth of shares, its last quarter ended with close to $35 billion in cash and equivalents. Its expansion has been on many fronts, so where it could do a deal would depend on the climate and upon what would give it a leg up for the next generation. It also has preferred to make small strategic deals since its old Scientific-Atlanta deal.

Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) had a market cap of roughly $109 billion mid-week and has close to $19 billion cash equivalents before closing a recent deal. It also had close to $6 billion in receivables and inventories. Intel has been somewhat active via its ventures and in acquiring units or bolt-on companies like Wind River recently. Intel has to be careful where it treads on anything processor-related, but there are dozens of core related technologies in computing and in communications that it would not fall under harsh antitrust reviews.

Oracle Corp. (NASDAQ: ORCL) had over $12.5 billion in cash at the end of last quarter that could be used for a deal if its Sun ambitions are thwarted by the dopes at the E.U. who think that Sun should keep losing money. If that deal is somehow blocked, you know at least how much Larry Ellison is willing to dole out for a money-losing operation.

Pound Unter Alles...

Euro sempre più forte ed oggi il rapporto Euro/Pound è ritornato a 0.90. E' l'occasione giusta per convincere il popolo di Albione a lasciare da parte orgoglio e pregiudizio, abbandonare una valuta decrepita e poco attraente (la sterlina non si è mai dimostrata cool come il marco tedesco) e saltare sul carro del vincitore?

The Nightmare Portfolio of 2009

by Tom Petruno (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co)

(From the original source: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co/2009/09/is-it-possible-for-an-investor-to-be-losing-money-in-financial-markets-this-year--with-an-incredible-amount-of-bad-luck-y.html)

September 17, 2009 | 5:30 am

Is it possible for an investor to be losing money in financial markets this year?

With an incredible amount of bad timing and wrong-headed conviction, you actually could have constructed a portfolio on Jan. 1 that would be deep in the red by now -- even as most stocks, bonds and commodities have rallied sharply.

Basically, if you bet heavily at the start of the year on some version of economic and market Armageddon unfolding in 2009 -- and you’ve refused to budge from that bet -- you probably are in a world of hurt.

Though I concede the year isn’t over, and it’s possible that financial Armageddon has only been deferred, here's my idea of the Nightmare Portfolio of 2009:

--- A long-term Treasury bond fund. As 2008 ended Treasury yields had plunged to near-record lows as some investors flocked to the relative safety of government bonds, fearing that the worst was yet to come for the economy and the financial system.

Bad move: Treasury yields began to rebound with the turn of the calendar to January, as the market focused less on the economic meltdown that was in progress and more on Uncle Sam’s massive borrowing needs. When yields go up, bond prices drop.

The 30-year T-bond yield, which fell as low as 2.52% in December, now is at 4.26%. The average total return for long-term T-bond mutual funds this year, according to Morningstar Inc.: a negative 11.6%, as the plunge in bond prices has more than wiped out interest earnings.

--- A bear-market stock fund. With the Standard & Poor’s 500 index down 38% in 2008, and the worst of the recession clearly ahead as 2009 dawned, bear-market funds had huge appeal as portfolio hedges. By using derivative securities or "short selling" strategies the funds are designed to gain if share prices slump.

That continued to be the right market bet -- until stocks hit bottom in early March, turned up, and, so far, haven’t looked back. The average total return of bear market funds year-to-date: a negative 32.3%, compared with the positive 20.5% return of the S&P 500.

--- A strong-dollar fund. If you expected the global financial system to fly apart in 2009 it would have made sense to bet on the dollar rallying, figuring that investors would turn back to the world’s premier currency as a haven. In fact, the greenback rose sharply in January and February as fears of calamity mushroomed.

But once stock markets began to snap back in March the dollar’s allure faded as global investors began to reach for risk again. This month the buck is sliding anew, deepening the losses of funds that bet on dollar strength. Case in point: The Pro-Funds Rising U.S. Dollar fund now is down 9.1% for the year.

--- A natural gas fund. Specifically, the U.S. Natural Gas exchange-traded fund (ticker: UNG). Who knew that, despite the resurgence of crude oil prices this year, natural gas prices would continue to plummet -- to 7 1/2 year lows by early this month?

But there may be hope: Even amid a continuing glut of gas and weak industrial demand, gas futures prices have rebounded 48% since Sept. 3, and the UNG fund is up 30% since then. That may not be much comfort to investors who bought in late last year or early this year, however: The fund still is off 49% year to date.

Tom Petruno (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/money_co)

Natural gas... è rebound?

I contratti futures del natural gas sono aumentati vertiginosamento ieri (14 settembre), spinti dalle voci che il mercato ha raggiunto il fondo a ridosso della stagione invernale (il gas naturale è usato massimamente per il riscaldamento delle abitazioni). Al Nymex il contratto future del natural gas con scadenza ottobre è terminato a 3.29$ (+11%). Nonostante il progresso del prezzo del gas dell'ultima settimana (dopo aver raggiunto i minimi da sette anni di 2.50$) molti analisti dubitano che ci possa essere un vero rebound a causa del persistente stato asfittico dell'economia americana (il natural gas è fondamentale per la produzione dell'energia elettrica necessaria all'industria) e le previsioni di un inverno inaspettatamente mite rispetto agli anni passati.

La nuova GM? E' già vecchia!

Sabato 11 luglio GM è emersa dalla bancarotta garantita dal Capther 11 della costituzione USA. Nessuno lo dice... ma lo stato (il governo degli Stati Uniti) detiene il 61% della nuova GM. E' imbarazzante constatare che un paese che ha fatto della libera iniziativa (quando gli affari andavano a gonfie vele) un suo caposaldo, stia adottando dei provvedimenti visibilmente socialisti pur di non far fallire le proprie corporation dagli illustri passati. Gli sconfitti della clamorosa saga GM sono due: gli azionisti della vecchia GM e i contribuenti americani. Dei numerosi brand del gruppo GM sopravviveranno solo quattro: Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick e GMC. Tre aspetti sono incredibilmente rilevanti: il primo, la velocità del declino (in 15 anni GM ha perso 2/3 dei propri clienti), il secondo, quanto è delicato il gap tra successo e fallimento (cinque anni fa GM stava per comprare un'agonizzante Fiat, ora è Fiat che si è comprata Chrysler). E il terzo? Il terzo è riscontrare come le società in forte crisi in America siano ridate in gestione a vecchi manager: Bob Lutz ha quasi 78 anni ed ha appena dichiarato (il primo giorno di lavoro) "mi focalizzerò su tutti gli elementi creativi per i nuovi prodotti e per la relazione coi clienti"... bah... speriamo che i giovani clienti si facciano regalare l'auto dai nonni!

Palm Pre vs iPhone: la guerra è iniziata!

Beh.. non è che non ce l'aspettassimo, ma sicuramente nessuno prevedeva che il nuovissimo anti-iPhone Palm Pre (NASDAQ:PALM) vendesse così tanto le prime due settimane (inizio giugno) da rimanere senza scorte. Di sicuro non se lo aspettava Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL). Sembra infatti che tutti gli store di Sprint (l'operatore USA con l'esclusiva per i primi sei mesi) sia già a corto del nuovo oggetto del desiderio. Gli operatori telefonici europei (riscontrato l'inaspettato - ma forse annunciato - successo americano) corrono ai ripari e fanno la fila per strappare l'esclusiva in suolo continentale.
E gli investitori? Gli investitori di Palm festeggiano! Il titolo ha infatti guadagnato il 42% dal 22 maggio in un periodo emorroidico (ultime 6 settimane) dei principali indici USA.

I cammelli più veloci di Porsche...

Guerra aperta tra Wolkswagen e finanzieri arabi... tutti vogliono Porsche, sull'orlo dell'abisso dopo l'entuasiasmante e sfortunata scalata a Wolkswagen...
In rally il titolo della Porsche a Francoforte, su alcune indiscrezioni che vedono il Qatar intenzionato ad aumentare l'offerta per una quota della società. 7 miliardi di euro per il 25% circa della holding, contro i 5 miliardi offerti in precedenza. A Francoforte i titoli Porsche avanzano di oltre quattro punti, trainando l'intero settore auto europeo (Stoxx +1,27%).
Una cosa sembra certa in questo risiko giocato in terra teutonica, tra familiari, amici ed ora finanzieri mediorientali: chi sarà il primo a cadere?

Chip sales rebound in 2Q09 (source: IC Insights)

The total IC market worldwide in second-quarter 2009 registered the fourth-highest quarterly growth rate in the past 25 years, according to IC Insights. Chip sales in the second quarter grew 16% sequentially following the worst two quarters in the history, signaling that the "healing" process is underway, said the market research firm.
Compared to first-quarter 2009, the DRAM market grew over 30%, IC Insights said.
Although the IC inventory replenishment surge in second-quarter 2009 is expected to take away some of the momentum of the third quarter, the second half of the year still looks strong, according to IC Insights. The research firm suggested industry players do not look backwards, believing the worst is over.
IC Insights estimated the total IC market is likely to climb 18% in the second half of 2009, compared to the first half, according to previous reports.

Gas price drop may lower heating bills

By Thomas Content of the Journal Sentinel (source http://www.jsonline.com)

Posted: July 9, 2009

There may be some relief in what seems to be a never-ending upward curve to energy prices.

A year ago, natural gas prices trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange were at near-record levels, and there were worries that winter heating costs would soar by 50% or more. As it turned out, natural gas prices cratered with the economy - and so did home-heating costs.

Now natural gas prices are at their lowest levels in nearly seven years - and utilities are buying gas at record levels to put in storage for the winter months.

The Prez should know you never look back, only forward.

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